The predictive receiver operating characteristic curve for the joint assessment of the positive and negative predictive values

Binary test outcomes typically result from dichotomizing a continuous test variable, observable or latent. The effect of the threshold for test positivity on test sensitivity and specificity has been studied extensively in receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. However, considerably less attention has been given to the study of the effect of the positivity threshold on the predictive value of a test. In this paper we present methods for the joint study of the positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) of diagnostic tests. We define the predictive receiver operating characteristic (PROC) curve that consists of all possible pairs of PPV and NPV as the threshold for test positivity varies. Unlike the simple trade-off between sensitivity and specificity exhibited in the ROC curve, the PROC curve displays what is often a complex interplay between PPV and NPV as the positivity threshold changes. We study the monotonicity and other geometric properties of the PROC curve and propose summary measures for the predictive performance of tests. We also formulate and discuss regression models for the estimation of the effects of covariates

Transport properties of dense fluid argon

We calculate using molecular dynamics simulations the transport properties of realistically modeled fluid argon at pressures up to $\simeq 50GPa$ and temperatures up to $3000K$. In this context we provide a critique of some newer theoretical predictions for the diffusion coefficients of liquids and a discussion of the Enskog theory relevance under two different adaptations: modified Enskog theory (MET) and effective diameter Enskog theory. We also analyze a number of experimental data for the thermal conductivity of monoatomic and small diatomic dense fluids.Comment: 8 pages, 6 figure

Multi-objective optimisation for receiver operating characteristic analysis

Copyright © 2006 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. The final publication is available at link.springer.comBook title: Multi-Objective Machine LearningSummary Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis is now a standard tool for the comparison of binary classifiers and the selection operating parameters when the costs of misclassification are unknown. This chapter outlines the use of evolutionary multi-objective optimisation techniques for ROC analysis, in both its traditional binary classification setting, and in the novel multi-class ROC situation. Methods for comparing classifier performance in the multi-class case, based on an analogue of the Gini coefficient, are described, which leads to a natural method of selecting the classifier operating point. Illustrations are given concerning synthetic data and an application to Short Term Conflict Alert

HIV-Specific T Cells Generated from Naive T Cells Suppress HIV In Vitro and Recognize Wide Epitope Breadths

The Berlin Patient represents the first and only functional HIV cure achieved by hematopoietic stem cell transplant (HSCT). In subsequent efforts to replicate this result, HIV rebounded post-HSCT after withdrawal of antiretroviral therapy. Providing HIV-specific immunity through adoptive T cell therapy may prevent HIV rebound post-HSCT by eliminating newly infected cells before they can seed systemic infection. Adoptive T cell therapy has demonstrated success in boosting Epstein-Barr virus and cytomegalovirus-specific immunity post-HSCT, controlling viral reactivation. However, T cell immunotherapies to boost HIV-specific immunity have been limited by single-epitope specificity and minimal persistence or efficacy in vivo. To improve this strategy, we sought to generate allogeneic HIV-specific T cells from human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-A02+ HIV-negative adult or cord blood donors. We focused on HLA-A02+ donors due to well-characterized epitope restrictions observed in HIV+ populations. We show that multi-antigen HIV-specific T cells can be generated from naive T cells of both cord blood and adults using a reproducible good manufacturing practice (GMP)-grade protocol. This product lysed antigen-pulsed targets and suppressed active HIV in vitro. Interestingly, these cells displayed broad epitope recognition despite lacking recognition of the common HLA-A02-restricted HIV epitope Gag SL9. This first demonstration of functional multi-antigen HIV-specific T cells has implications for improving treatment of HIV through allogeneic HSCT. Patel et al. demonstrate the ability to generate HIV-specific T cells from HIV-seronegative adults and cord blood with a good-manufacturing-practice-compliant strategy. These immunotherapies are multi-antigen specific, display cytotoxicity, and suppress HIV in vitro, providing a promising platform for adoptive T cell therapy in a post-transplant setting

Adverse events following infusion of T cells for adoptive immunotherapy: A 10-year experience

Background aims. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) currently recommends at least 4 h of recipient monitoring after T cell infusions to detect early infusion reactions. Recent catastrophic reactions to 'first-in-man' biologic agents have emphasized the importance of this rule for initial studies of new products. The value of such monitoring for better established agents is less obvious. Methods. We reviewed infusion-related adverse events (AE) following administration of ex vivo-expanded T cell products (antigen-specific cytotoxic T lymphocytes, allodepleted T cells, and genetically modified T cells) on investigational new drug (IND) studies in our center. Results. From 1998 to 2008, we infused 381 T cell products to 180 recipients, enrolled on 18 studies, receiving T cells targeting malignancies or post-transplant viral infections. There were no grade 34 infusion reactions during initial monitoring or 24-h follow-up. Twenty-four mild (grade 12) AE occurred in 21 infusions either during or immediately following infusion (up to 6 h), most commonly nausea and vomiting (10/24, 41.6%), probably because of the dimethyl sulfoxide cryoprotectant, and hypotension (20.8%), attributable to diphenhydramine pre-medication. Twenty-two additional non-severe events were reported within 24 h of infusion, most commonly culture-negative fever, chills and nausea. An increased risk of adverse events was associated with age [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.98; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.961.00, P 0.05], while an increased risk of immediate infusion-related events was higher in patients reporting allergies (IRR 2.72, 95% CI 1.007.40, P 0.05); sex, disease type and T cell source (allogeneic or autologous) had no effect on frequency of adverse events. Conclusions. Infusion of these T cell products was safe in the outpatient setting and associated with no severe reactions, so monitoring for 1 h after infusion is probably sufficient. As many of the AE were attributable to diphenhydramine premedication, a lower dose (0.25 mg/kg) should be selected

Diabetes care in remote Australia: the antenatal, postpartum and inter-pregnancy period

BACKGROUND:Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women experience high rates of diabetes in pregnancy (DIP), contributing to health risks for mother and infant, and the intergenerational cycle of diabetes. By enhancing diabetes management during pregnancy, postpartum and the interval between pregnancies, the DIP Partnership aims to improve health outcomes and reduce risks early in the life-course. We describe a mixed methods formative study of health professional's perspectives of antenatal and post-partum diabetes screening and management, including enablers and barriers to care. METHODS:Health professionals involved in providing diabetes care in pregnancy, from a range of health services across the Northern Territory, completed the survey (n = 82) and/or took part in interviews and/or focus groups (n = 62). RESULTS:Qualitative findings highlighted factors influencing the delivery of care as reported by health professionals, including: whose responsibility it is, access to care, the baby is the focus and pre-conception care. The main challenges were related to: disjointed systems and confusion around whose role it is to provide follow-up care beyond six weeks post-partum. Quantitative findings indicated that the majority of health professionals reported confidence in their own skills to manage women in the antenatal period (62%, 40/79) and slightly lower rates of confidence in the postpartum interval (57%, 33/58). CONCLUSION:These findings regarding whose role it is to provide postpartum care, along with opportunities to improve communication pathways and follow up care have informed the design of a complex health intervention to improve health systems and the provision of DIP related care.R. Kirkham, N. Trap-Jensen, J. A. Boyle, F. Barzi, E. L. M. Barr, C. Whitbread, P. Van Dokkum, M. Kirkwood, C. Connors, E. Moore, P. Zimmet, S. Corpus, A. J. Hanley, K. O, Dea, J. Oats, H. D. McIntyre, A. Brown, J. E. Shaw, L. Maple-Brown and on behalf of the NT Diabetes in Pregnancy Partnershi

Developing a predictive modelling capacity for a climate change-vulnerable blanket bog habitat: Assessing 1961-1990 baseline relationships

Aim: Understanding the spatial distribution of high priority habitats and developing predictive models using climate and environmental variables to replicate these distributions are desirable conservation goals. The aim of this study was to model and elucidate the contributions of climate and topography to the distribution of a priority blanket bog habitat in Ireland, and to examine how this might inform the development of a climate change predictive capacity for peat-lands in Ireland. Methods: Ten climatic and two topographic variables were recorded for grid cells with a spatial resolution of 1010 km, covering 87% of the mainland land surface of Ireland. Presence-absence data were matched to these variables and generalised linear models (GLMs) fitted to identify the main climatic and terrain predictor variables for occurrence of the habitat. Candidate predictor variables were screened for collinearity, and the accuracy of the final fitted GLM was evaluated using fourfold cross-validation based on the area under the curve (AUC) derived from a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plot. The GLM predicted habitat occurrence probability maps were mapped against the actual distributions using GIS techniques. Results: Despite the apparent parsimony of the initial GLM using only climatic variables, further testing indicated collinearity among temperature and precipitation variables for example. Subsequent elimination of the collinear variables and inclusion of elevation data produced an excellent performance based on the AUC scores of the final GLM. Mean annual temperature and total mean annual precipitation in combination with elevation range were the most powerful explanatory variable group among those explored for the presence of blanket bog habitat. Main conclusions: The results confirm that this habitat distribution in general can be modelled well using the non-collinear climatic and terrain variables tested at the grid resolution used. Mapping the GLM-predicted distribution to the observed distribution produced useful results in replicating the projected occurrence of the habitat distribution over an extensive area. The methods developed will usefully inform future climate change predictive modelling for Irelan